Melting certainties

A very important piece on the geo-strategic implications of climate change in the far north. Certainties disappear with the ice.

A touch Mel-odramatic

I am reluctant to direct anyone to Melanie Philips' blog at The Spectator. Her long posts are full of hysteria and irrationality on many topics, especially Barack Obama. Most telling is the post entitled 'Is America really going to do this?' Have a read and see what you think but my main reaction is that she is placing onto Obama what she thinks he thinks about America and the security challenges the West faces (because, in her mind, that is what a black liberal of his generation would think) not what he actually does think.

I suspect expressing this view will put me into Melanie's 'ememy of civilisation' category. But that's life, I suppose...

Ossy, Ossy, Ossy... Oik, Oik, Oik

A week on and 'yacht-gate' rumbles on, though attention seems to have turned to Mandelson for now. George Osborne seems to have stabilised his position but last week's events highlighted a major problem for the Tories as they seek to win the next election.

The economy is the transcendent political issue of our time but Osborne is clearly not up to the job of shadow chancellor, and that does not bode well should he ever get into government.

No surprise really: the man has never had a real job (St Paul's, Oxford, working for the Tory Party, MP) or even lived in the real world (born into privilege, lived in privilege ever since). He has NO idea what it is like to struggle to get the money to feed the kids, pay the utility bills, etc. And neither does anyone he has ever been around.

Telling the difference

To my mind the most telling difference between Obama and McCain is the reaction of the crowds at their respective rallies. More often than not you heard resounding cheers whenever Obama speaks. By contrast you hear boos from the McCain people. Says a great deal about what they say and what they want to achieve.

The end is near...

This is John McCain's closing argument, apparently:

"At a time when America is facing historic crisis we can't put our fate in the hands of an untested, inexperienced candidate. John McCain has served his country all his life, and he is the most prepared to restore our economy, bring back fiscal discipline, manage the two wars, and keep Americans safe."

So several months after dropping the 'inexperience' card in favour of Gov Palin - it's back. Extraordinary.

By contrast this is Obama's positive closing argument:

"Senator Obama will tell voters that after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he'd do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Obama will ask Americans to help him change this country, and say that in just one week, they can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom-up, they can choose to invest in health care for our families and education for our kids and renewable energy for our future, and they can choose hope over fear, unity over division and the promise of change over the power of the status quo."

Wendy resigns

Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander has resigned. A few initial thoughts:

- I wonder if Labour will learn that the absence of internal party competition is not the same as unity. The contrast between the coverage in today's newspapers of the Labour Party in the UK and the Democrats in the US could not be more stark. On one side (east of the Atlantic) there is a centre left party which 'elected' two leaders (Brown and Alexander) without anyone standing against them. The result? Political disaster with the wrong people appointed and a legacy of resentment and opposition within the party. On the other side (west of the Atlantic) there was a 17 month, hard fought fight for leadership of the Democratic Party. The result? The winner is about 10 points ahead in the polls. Clinton is campaigning for Obama and the vast majority of her supporters have swung behind him. Labour's experience in the early 1980s appears to have left Labour with the impression that looking united on the evening news is more important that having proper internal debate. That needs to change is Labour is going to survive and prosper, north or south of the border.

- Only time will tell, but it will be interesting to see if Wendy's sudden change in policy on an early independence referendum played any role in today's events. Was Brown's previously rock solid support for Wendy undermined by her policy on a referendum and her apparent failure to consult him on it? (STOP PRESS: The BBC has just reported that Wendy resigned despite Brown's urging her to stay.) It will also be interesting to see what happens to the early referendum policy under the next leader.

- The SNP's handling of this situation, the main aim of which appeared to be to destabilise Wendy Alexander and Scottish Labour, has been executed with textbook efficiency. I wonder, however, if now might be time to tone it down. There have been moments when individual backbench nats have looked shrill and bullying. It is important that this does not infect the general perception of the party. We are not there yet but it could happen.

- Finally, I have no idea what Wendy Alexander's plans are but if she wants to make a come back to front line politics, she would have been better to use today for endless mea culpas rather than attacking her opponents. That would have started to repair her image and made anyone who attacked her look mean and small minded. Her tone today was not the first tactical mis-step of her leadership. But it was her last.

The real data losers... the investigation

Further to Monday's post: the formal investigation into HMRC's loss of discs containing the personal and bank details of half the nation's population was published yesterday. The cause (as foreshadowed on Monday) was "poor communication between management and junior staff, and low morale at the HMRC". And the response? George Osborne, as normal, missed the point. He used it as an opportunity to punish Alistair Darling but failed to address the real issues (public sector management, etc.) and how his party would seek to solve those problems.

Depressing. If someone could offer a convincing case that they could make government work, they could get on. That person certainly isn't George Osborne.

P.S. On an entirely separate matter, there has just been a great report on Channel 4 News about a new feature length documentary called Man On Wire, which is premiering at the Edinburgh Film Festival tonight. It looks like a fascinating film - and reminded me of a time when the Twin Towers were a symbol of hope not a reminder of terror.